Is Flying Becoming More or Less Safe?
Taylorcraft, Loch Haven Piper, Aeronca, and Stinson made small aircraft sixty years ago with steel tubes, wood, and cotton. Thirty years later, aluminum-made planes by Cessna, Vero Beach Piper, Beechcraft, and Mooney became standard. Now, Cirrus and Lancair manufacture in quiet factories (no blaring rivet guns). They use composites.
Modern composite aircraft combine high-tech laminar flow airfoils, powerful dual turbo charged and intercooled engines, and computerized cockpits. Companies advertise them as faster, more capable, easier to fly and safer than ever. The pitch has been successful too. Cirrus delivered more than forty-five hundred aircraft since 1999 and have flown nearly three millions hours to date.
It only makes sense that life is safer today than it was thirty years ago. Certainly, flying is safer than it was sixty years ago. Right?
The following information is from the December 2010 FAA aircraft registration database and the NTSB downloadable dataset.
Key in analysis is that NTSB accident reports record aircraft total time in service at the accident site. This offers reliable fleet hours information considering hundreds of aircraft across ten years time span.
| Manufacturer | Number Registered Aircraft December 2010 | Fatal Accidents Last Ten Years | Average Aircraft Total Time of Actual Accident Aircraft | Average Age of Actual Accident Aircraft, Years Old | Average Hours Flown per Year Actual Accident Aircraft |
| Cessna | 99,916 | 1,071 | 4,828 | 32 | 151 |
| Piper | 63,131 | 696 | 4,592 | 33 | 139 |
| Beechcraft | 27,659 | 454 | 5,077 | 32 | 159 |
| Aeronca | 9,911 | 11 | 2,223 | 65 | 34 |
| Mooney | 7,960 | 86 | 3,344 | 30 | 111 |
| Cirrus | 3,788 | 62 | 469 | 6 | 78 |
| Taylorcraft | 3,609 | 8 | 2,997 | 60 | 50 |
| Stinson | 3,172 | 4 | 2,639 | 64 | 41 |
| Luscombe | 2,423 | 8 | 2,998 | 64 | 47 |
| Grumman | 2,138 | 24 | 2,953 | 35 | 84 |
Less informative, the following tabulation shows fatal accidents per number of aircraft, not factoring the hours flown.
| Manufacturer | Number Aircraft Per Accident |
| Aeronca | 901 |
| Stinson | 793 |
| Taylorcraft | 451 |
| Luscombe | 303 |
| Cessna | 93 |
| Mooney | 93 |
| Piper | 91 |
| Grumman | 89 |
| Beechcraft | 61 |
| Cirrus | 61 |
Aircraft are subject to accident potential according to hours flown. Therefore, the following graph shows the number of hours flown per fatal accident by aircraft make. To understand the kinds and types of aircraft that make up this fleet, please see post, The Fifty Most Commonplace Airplanes.
Surprisingly, aluminum aircraft proved half as safe as their vintage predecessors. The 64-year-old Stinson-made plane was safer than the Cirrus by a factor of 5.
|
Manufacturer |
Times More Safe or Fatal than Average |
|
Stinson |
2.05 |
|
Aeronca |
1.94 |
|
Taylorcraft |
1.42 |
|
Luscombe |
-1.12 |
|
Cessna |
-1.13 |
|
Piper |
-1.26 |
|
Mooney |
-1.54 |
|
Beechcraft |
-1.65 |
|
Grumman |
-2.12 |
|
Cirrus |
-3.33 |
Pictured below is the safest airplane since 2000, a Stinson Model 108-3. Predecessor of the 108 was the Stinson Reliant. Good name.
A 4-place Stinson features a partial leading edge slot, similar in aerodynamic function to the outboard leading edge cuff design of natural laminar flow Cirrus and Corvalis wings.
Seems Grandad had some things figured out a long time ago. He also won at checkers.
Posted by Stephen T Wilson at 12/22/2010 6:59 PM 
Categories: Flight Instruction, Air Safety
Tags: Aircraft Sales Flight Instruction
Categories: Flight Instruction, Air Safety
Tags: Aircraft Sales Flight Instruction
These are very interesting crash statistics. I will forward them to my brother. He has flown for years, and he swears by his Stinson four-seater. He'll be glad to have the data to back his safety claims for that plane.
Thanks!
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